2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby sms29s66 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:14 am

Wow! I wasn't expecting the ladies free skate to be so interesting. I am happy for Mirai and Karen, but I don't have any confidence in their ability to rise to the occasion in SK. Good for Bradie Tennell!
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby chuckiem » Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:10 am

FINAL RESULTS LADIES

1 Bradie TENNELL 219.51 1 1
2 Mirai NAGASU 213.84 2 2
3 Karen CHEN 198.59 3 4
4 Ashley WAGNER 196.19 5 3
5 Mariah BELL 192.34 6 6
6 Starr ANDREWS 189.91 8 5
7 Angela WANG 188.01 4 7
8 Amber GLENN 168.06 9 9
9 Courtney HICKS 165.48 11 8
10 Tessa HONG 156.86 13 11
11 Caroline ZHANG 156.38 10 14
12 Franchesca CHIERA 150.99 14 13
13 Hannah MILLER 149.14 12 16
14 Kaitlyn NGUYEN 146.20 17 12
15 Brynne McISAAC 145.54 20 10
16 Emmy MA 138.02 18 15
17 Megan WESSENBERG 131.73 22 17
19 Katie McBEATH 124.64 15 18
19 Vivian LE 122.60 16 19
20 Emily CHAN 104.43 19 20
R Polina EDMUNDS 7
R Ashley LIN 21
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Jonas » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:34 am

Lots of thoughts running through my head after this one.

Courtney Hicks -- another frustrating finish as she just CANNOT seem to ever put it together. If only Frank Carroll isn't on the verge of retirement yet...

Starr Andrews stole the crowd, but I'm honestly not impressed. A lot of the issues that leave me scratching my head about Tuberidze's stable of Russian tweenies -- small, labored jumps w/little flow adn speed coming in and out, little ease of movement while covering the ice, I see in Starr also. I agree w/her placement and great job for her holding it togethe as well as she did in her senior debut, but her skating skill set just leaves me with a lot left to be desired. How Starr's FS was scored less than 3 points lower than Ashley's is beyond me.

Amber Glenn, who skated right after Starr, displayed more of the qualities I dig -- effortless speed, big jumps. She started off red hot, but like Courtney Hicks, Amber Glenn just keeps making these clumsy mistakes that hold her back. Amber is also one of those that lets the performance go once the jumps run away from her.

Mariah Bell needed this FS in November. Easily her best program since Skate America '16. Had she not fallen on the 2Axel, I'm convinced now that the judges probably would've give her the pewter here.

Mirai Nagasu held it together well enough to earn her ticket to Pyeongchang and NBC got the happy ending to the story line it kept feeding us ad nauseum. I'm still not sold on her performance ability -- there isn't much of any really -- but I give her huge props for staying committed. Despite all the 3Axel hype, she's yet to land a clean one in competition, but again, mad respect to her for consistently trying it each time every time. I'm starting to believe that Mirai will actually deliver solidly next month.

Bradie Tennell -- rock solid en route to this well deserved US title. Honestly, I thought she was clearly better than Mirai -- more than the scores indicate. She's not the most entertaining to watch, BUT seeing a US lady w/such technical prowess is refreshing to watch! Bradie has the fewest technical weaknesses AND has proven herself to be, by far, the least nervy competitor among the US ladies. She's definitely the ladies' flag bearer that the USFSA needs right now going into Pyeongchang and beyond.

Your thoughts...
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Jonas » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:07 am

...so, now...for that third spot...

Karen Chen has Ashley beat in both Tier 1 events: 2017 Worlds and 2018 US Nationals. Seemingly a slam dunk decision in favor of Karen, but...

Did Karen convincingly beat Ashley overall tonight?? I have my doubts. I did feel this sense that the USFSA got infected w/Ashley Fatigue and seemingly dinged her more technically and low-balled her PCS, but admittedly there's some personal bias there. I'd love to read more knowledgeable fans' assessments of both ladies' performances and compare.

Then there's the question of potential and probability. Karen arguably has the higher scoring potential. Key word there is potential because I feel that Karen is less likely to reach her top scoring potential than Ashley is. Similarly, I feel that there's equal probability that Karen will tank, while Ashley will put out a mediocre, but respectable performance.

Ultimately, I'd be shocked if Karen did not get the ticket to Pyeongchang. I think the judges have spoken pretty clearly tonight.

If the judges share similar hangups that I do regarding Karen's track record relative to Ashley's, then there may be that very small chance that the USFSA bumps Karen off the World Team to make room for Ashley. If not, then I'd say Ashley will probably be prepping gor retirement.

Your thoughts...
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Maleeva » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:29 pm

Chen does get the third Olympic spot over Wagner!

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2018/01/ ... ympic-team
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Maleeva » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:49 pm

Jonas I agree 100% with you about Starr Andrews and Amber Glenn. Glenn for sure has the better skating skills, at this point.I think the judging panel just got caught up in Starr’s performance that she delivered last night and that she made less errors than Amber.

Fascinating that Ashley came in third in PCS, behind Tennell and Chen. The judges really dinged her for her lack of transitions, getting several 7s for PCS transitions.

Tennell and Nagasu both received some 9s for PCS composition and Interpretation. I’m not so sure either will get 9s from an ISU judging panel in Pyeongchang, even if they skate lights out. I’m very worried the rest of the ladies worldwide are skating for a Bronze medal in Pyeongchang, behind Zagitova and Medvedeva.

All this said, I really enjoyed last night’s skating (except for Tara commentating at the the most inopportune moments over the pretty, soft spots of the music!) and I think the US is sending three ladies to Pyeongchang that can realistically all finish close to the top ten. If Bradie can skate there like she did in San Jose, she really can be a dark horse for the Bronze medal, challenging Osmond, Sotskova, the Japanese ladies and Kostner for third place.

I have to agree that it is so refreshing to finally send a US lady to a major international event with such sublime technical ability.
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby bumphystars » Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:53 pm

Well good for the USFSA (for once!). They absolutely made the right decision here. I really like Ashley and I am heartbroken for her, but there is no justification for her getting on the team over any of Karen, Marai, or Bradie. I see that she has been named to 4CC and I hope she goes and knocks 'em dead there as a fitting send off for a great US champion.

Bradie is awesome but that program. Cinderella, really? She's 19 for crying out loud! Get that girl to Lori Nichol or Jeff Buttle or David Wilson STAT (send her to Canada!). With a more intricate, sophisticated program she will be a true contender. Regardless, well done her for keeping her nerve during that pressure cooker—absolutely the clear champion. It will be interesting to see how she stacks up internationally now.

I always feel that the international judges are itching for an American woman to earn good marks and as a skating fan I would love to see an American woman start to dominate internationally—it is good for our sport. Is Bradie that woman? Hard to say this early, but I'm encouraged by her consistency and tenacity.

As for dance, I am pretty firmly on the Hubbell and Donahue bus but even I have to admit that the Shibs had the best SD. The twizzles that failed them at the GPF really caught fire here and overall they were just so sharp and crisp. In fact, I can see this SD competing with V/M and G/P (I can't believe I just typed that). That said, I think the Shibs' Free is not at the level of H/D's. But we'll see. What is definitely clear is that C/B are the US clear number 3 now, which is about right on my books. Apart from their lift, there is nothing in their program that comes close to the other two.
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby bumphystars » Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:00 pm

Maleeva wrote: If Bradie can skate there like she did in San Jose, she really can be a dark horse for the Bronze medal, challenging Osmond, Sotskova, the Japanese ladies and Kostner for third place.


As I just typed above, I think Bradie is great, but do you really think she can challenge these skaters on PCS? Recall that just a few weeks ago she was 3rd at Skate America with a similar skate earning 64.41 PCS. (Last night she was at 69.71, at home for nationals.)

By comparison, at the GPF, Osmond got 72.62 PCS and Kostner got 74.96, for two examples. Bradie's got a ways to go, no?
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Maleeva » Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:08 pm

I guess the USFSA decided not to have the Olympic skaters make two trips to Asia, not sending any of the ladies to 4 Cs in Taipei.

I guess that will be the same for the men, pairs and dance.

I wonder if Canada will do the same? Here are the US teams:

http://usfsa.org/story?id=91142&type=media
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Maleeva » Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:14 pm

bumphystars wrote:
Maleeva wrote: If Bradie can skate there like she did in San Jose, she really can be a dark horse for the Bronze medal, challenging Osmond, Sotskova, the Japanese ladies and Kostner for third place.


As I just typed above, I think Bradie is great, but do you really think she can challenge these skaters on PCS? Recall that just a few weeks ago she was 3rd at Skate America with a similar skate earning 64.41 PCS. (Last night she was at 69.71, at home for nationals.)

By comparison, at the GPF, Osmond got 72.62 PCS and Kostner got 74.96, for two examples. Bradie's got a ways to go, no?


Oh yes Bumphstars I agree 100%. That is why I said she will be a dark horse for bronze.

That said, when she won bronze at skate America she was basically a nobody on the international scene. Now she will go to Pyeongchang as the #1 US lady with a national title. I think that may give her a bit of a bump with ISU tech panels/judges on PCS and GOE marks. I do believe going to Olympics as your nation’s #1 skater does mean something to judges, simple human perception.
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Jonas » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:53 pm

Ashley Wagner -- <SIGH> -- You know, if I were to take a second watch of the ladies FS later, I can probably see why the judges doled out the PCS that they did to Wagner. However, she did also display that intangible ability to draw in her audience. Why she ever doubted the effectiveness of LaLa Land as a program is also beyond me as this could've been another signature program for her. I do hope that Ashley does opt to compete at Four Continents and really fights for a second title there -- and not as a final sendoff, but as a springboard to forge forward next season!! :D

Looking forward to Pyeongchang: I maintain that no US lady will medal, but I do think Bradie Tennell will be the highest US finisher AND will land top 10.

Your thoughts...
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Jonas » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:43 am

WOW!!

Before the final group skated I thought the US Olympic Team would be Nathan Chen, Adam Rippon, and whoever between Jason Brown and Vincent Zhou would finish higher. Pretty straightforward I thought it would be...

...until I was quickly reminded how slippery ice is and that it ain't over until it's over.

Vincent Zhou started off w/an awesome 4Lutz-Rippon 3toe, but none of the subsequent quad passes received full base value. I will say that technical panel could've given him the 4flip, but with some of the selective calls, I suspect that this was done to give Jason Brown a real fighting chance later in the group. The rest of Vincent's performance just continued to flatten with each missed quad attempt.

I've written off Ross Miner for Pyeongchang like I suspect many people have. He skated a really nice short here like he did in Minneapolis and Kansas City, but I honestly thought he'd flub the free again here like he did then. Nope -- Ross, in a clutch, delivered the FS of his life complete with a clean, swishy 4Salchow!! Last time I've seen Ross land a clean quad was at '13 Nationals in Omaha. Ross took us on quite the unexpected thrill ride and was just an absolute joy to see. I'm torn about Ross's silver medal finish here. On one hand, Ross's overall performance, IMO, was far greater than the sum of Vincent's technical elements and components. On the other hand, instant replay showed me that the 4Sal had an underrotation that was not called and I've bee griping about the selective, inconsistent technical calls. Had Ross correctly been given the carrot, he woulda finished behind Vincent. But then again, should Vincent's PCS be that close to Ross's since Ross far better demonstrated the bullet points of the PCS. Tough one.

I've seen Adam skate this FS a lot better. I found him to be tight throughout tonight. Then the two disasterous pops -- on a 3Sal and a 3Lutz -- that sucked the life out of the arena. What was practically a sure thing for Adam became a very precarious situation in a matter of seconds.

Jason Brown had a wide open opportunity now to assure himself of a return Olympic trip, but he was an even bigger disaster and took himself completely out of contention.

So, who's going to South Korea w/Nathan is the nightmarish question the USFSA will have to be prepared to answer.

I can make valid arguments for each of the three possible combinations. If I were personally selecting, I'd split the difference like it was 4years ago: Nathan, Ross, and Adam for South Korea; Nathan, Vincent, and Adam for Worlds.

I predict, however, that the US Olympic Team will NOT have BOTH Adam and Ross on it.

Your thoughts...
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Maleeva » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:20 pm

I agree with your selections Jonas. Ross earned the trip to Pyeongchang. Send Vince to worlds where he can best help the US keep three slots for the men.
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby sms29s66 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:58 pm

Does anyone have any theories about Jason Brown's disastrous season? He hasn't looked like himself this whole season.

I hope they send Vincent and Ross along with Nathan. Two young skaters and one veteran--who earned his way. Adam did not perform in a clutch situation and should not be rewarded, especially in light of his big-mouth predictions. Karma should bite him in the butt.
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Virginia » Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:13 pm

sms wrote:

Does anyone have any theories about Jason Brown's disastrous season? He hasn't looked like himself this whole season.


I do.

I think the pressure to master the quad has crushed him.

This boy has been working on a quad since either the summer of 2014 or 2015. He's yet to land a clean one in competition. WHY????

He's clearly a marvelously talented athlete. With his huge triples, he should be able to master the extra rotation after this much time. So what's the problem?

I think some of it is psychological, but I also have to wonder if a coaching change would help. Kori Ade has been his coach since childhood, but as far as I know she's never worked with a world-class skater before. Does she know how to teach him to do a quad? She's probably never had another skater attempt it.

I can't help but wonder if he'd moved on to a more experienced coach, someone with more technical experience, things might have worked out differently for him. Look at what strict taskmaster and excellent technician Rafael Aruturian did for skaters like Rippon and Wagner. He's not a huggy, affection kind of coach, but he sure makes them up their game!

Thoughts?
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Maleeva » Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:16 pm

Virginia I completely agree. Jason needs a technical coach ASAP!!!

If Mirai can learn a triple axel at her age then Jason can learn a quad at his age. He has landed one quad in competition, correct?
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby chuckiem » Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:36 pm

Just announced: the men's team for the Olympics: Chen, Zhou, Rippon. Same for Worlds.
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby sms29s66 » Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:14 pm

Well, that *****.
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby Jonas » Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:03 pm

To add insult to injury, the USFSA names Ross Miner as the 2nd alternate behind Jason Brown. :roll: :oops: :x

Your thoughts...
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Re: 2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

Postby chuckiem » Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:15 pm

Face it: Ross Miner hasn't had a skate like the one at Nationals in 4 or 5 years. He's been finishing at the bottom of the GPs for the past couple of seasons. Do we really want him at Worlds with 3 spots on the line?
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