2018 US NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

[Maleeva]

These are some interesting picks for US nationals:

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2017/12/ ... n-san-jose

[chuckiem]

I am leaving today for US Nationals. I will post if I have time in between or after competitions.

Intermediate lady Indi Cha won the SP yesterday with 3f+2t, 3lo, 2a and 47.28 points.

She also won the FS to La La Land (84.45 for a total 131.73) and the Intermediate title.

[Jonas]

I think that the top three finishers in San Jose will be sent to Pyeongchang. More specifically I predict that the medallists will be among Karen Chen, Mirai Nagasu, Bradie Tennell, and Ashley Wagner. I'd be very surprised if someone else crashes this prediction.

Call me crazy, but I have a gut feeling that Karen Chen will miraculously pull together two solid performances and defend her title. Key words are gut feeling as Karen certainly hasn't produced anything championship worthy internationally since Helsinki. In fact, she's been dismal and hasn't looked like THE reigning US Champion at all out there. But perhaps it would be because no one is really expecting much from Karen that the silent assassin would emerge.

I've been reading reports of how solid Bradie Tennell has been during various practice sessions and club competitions this summer and she's just carried it on through her Challenger event and in her medal winning debut at Skate America. She's by far the top scoring American internationally and just watching compete, she looks to me to be the most Olympic ready. The big question is how she'll handle the expectations since everyone is now aware of who she is and is now expecting big things for her.

And what would an Olympic year US Nationals be without a duel between Mirai Nagasu and Ashley Wagner for the last Olympic spot?!?! I predict this season will be no different. Despite ending the decade long World medal drought, Ashley is in a very precocious situation w/respect to making the team to Pyeongchang. Ashley's body of work ain't saving her this season: she's simply lost a lot of her mojo since Kansas City, plus she's been dealing w/injury. Fo show, it is a Nationals or bust situation for Ashley -- and Ashley herself put herself in this situation during interviews after she withrew from the FS at Skate America.

Your thoughts...

[Maleeva]

Nice insights Jonas.

Here is a good article about the men’s event. All I want is for Adam to make his first Olympic team:

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2018/01/ ... vs-artists

I’m glad Ashley is switching to the LA LA program but I kinda have Ashley fatigue. But i’ll Probably end up cheering for her on Friday night as usual LOL. Interesting that the USFSA gave the men the usual Saturday night slot reserved for the ladies, for live national TV. After a lack luster GP season here’s hoping the ladies deliver in San Jose. A preview article:

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2018/01/ ... la-la-land

[sms29s66]

I have Ashley fatigue, and I cannot bear to watch Mirai fail yet again. I'd like to see three new faces representing the US ladies.

[Jonas]

Reports from San Jose consistently have it that if the practice session carried over to the competition the top three finishers would be Mirai, Bradie, and Ashley, in that order. I've peeked at some clips and I can say that I concur w/these people's notions. All the other ladies aren't looking too hot -- at least not to challenge. In particular, Mariah Bell and Courtney Hicks, who, on paper, probably can AND SHOULD challenge, are looking kinda slummy in the practices. But, of course, ice is slippery.

Mirai's jumps, including 3Axel, look solid in practice, but we know many times that she tenses up and the rotations get sketchy when the lights are on. I still am not feeling any sort of performance from her, which is why I just can't quite get enjoy her skating as much as I do others.

Ashley's jumps looked good also from the few clips I saw, but reports also said that in Lake Placid couple of weeks ago. I think she's a much better performer than Mirai and Bradie, but she's obviously gotta deliver technically. I don't have Ashley Fatigue per se, but I don't think there's any compelling reason for the USFSA to send her to Pyeongchang if she doesn't deliver and someone else does.

Your thoughts...

[Virginia]

Jonas wrote:

I don't think there's any compelling reason for the USFSA to send her to Pyeongchang if she doesn't deliver and someone else does.

Two reasons: She's the only American lady to have brought home a world championship medal in a decade, and she's the only lady from the bronze-medal-winning Olympic team from four years ago still competitive.

Does she have weaknesses? Sure. You bet. But everybody who has challenged her over the past quadrennial seems to have fallen by the wayside. Gracie? Nowhere to be seen, poor girl. Polina? Not back to the skater she was after those bone bruises. Courtney? Mariah? Not there.

As for Mirai, I'd love to see her make another Olympic team just as a reward for her tenacity, but I don't hold out any hope that she could medal. I'm not even confident she'd crack the top ten. She makes Ashley look like a paragon of consistency, which is more than a little ironic.

And Bradie? Too new, too likely to crack under the pressure once she gets to South Korea. Send her by all means if she skates well, but I have no expectations for her.

So Ashley, with all her faults, is the best we've got. I think the International Committee will have to recognize that.

[sms29s66]

I don't find either of those reasons compelling. There comes a time for every skater to realize they've stayed too long at the party--such as Michelle Kwan at Torino.

[Jonas]

Just so I'm more clear:

I don't think ANY US lady will be contending for an individual medal in Pyeongchang -- not Ashley, not Mirai w/a 3Axel, nobody! Just ain't happenin!

I do, however, think Ashley is still very much in competitive shape for a return trip to the Olympics. It's just not as sure a thing, IMO, that it was four seasons ago. USFSA considers the prior season's Worlds along w/the current season's Grand Prix Series and US Nationals most heavily in selecting its Olympic Teams. Ashley had a much stronger body of work argument going into Sochi as she was far and away THE top US lady back then: 5th at '13 Worlds plus three medals in the Fall '13 Grand Prix series. Even w/her pewter mishap in Boston, I had no problem w/Ashley being selected onto the team because she was still clearly our most reliable competitor.

This season I don't think this argument is nearly as strong for Ashley, even though, yes, she did break the decade long World medal drought for the US. She dropped to 7th at '17 Worlds and only managed a bronze medal at Skate Canada and w/mediocre performances at that. It's a better record than most other US ladies this week, but I don't think it'll make up for another possible 4th place finish behind Chen, Tennell, and Nagasu, if it plays out that way. Just my opinion -- but I suspect Ashley would agree w/me.

No US lady has really stood out internationally this season, so I'd say just send the top 3, whoever they may be. Again, if the practice reports are any indication, Ashley is looking 3rd best, which would be all she needs for that ticket to Pyeongchang.

I still enjoy Ashley, so I'll be rooting nervously for her tonight!

Your thoughts...

[chuckiem]

The Ladies SP results:

1 Bradie TENNELL 73.79
2 Mirai NAGASU 73.09
3 Karen CHEN 69.48
4 Angela WANG 67.00
5 Ashley WAGNER 65.94
6 Mariah BELL 65.18
7 Polina EDMUNDS 63.78
8 Starr ANDREWS 62.55
9 Amber GLENN 61.62
10 Caroline ZHANG 60.29
11 Courtney HICKS 57.81
12 Hannah MILLER 57.57
13 Tessa HONG 55.82
14 Franchesca CHIERA 53.85
15 Katie McBEATH 48.53
16 Vivian LE 46.65
17 Kaitlyn NGUYEN 46.30
19 Emmy MA 45.55
19 Emily CHAN 44.79
20 Brynne McISAAC 43.97
21 Ashley LIN42.33
22 Megan WESSENBERG 40.90

As usual, Bradie's program was perfect.

Mirai, however, was not. She did the 3A right near where I was sitting, and it was clearly UR, double-footed, with a huge step out and hand down, but the tech team gave it to her anyway, but with a -2 GOE. The judges gave her only 7s in PCS, though, while Bradie got 8s.

The tech team gave both Karen and Ashley < on their 3/3s, but the judges gave them both 8s in PCS. Karen got much higher GOE on her spins and footwork than Ashley, which accounted for the difference in their marks.

If the tech team is going to ignore Mirai's URs while gigging Karen and Ashley, it seems pretty clear that Bradie and Mirai will be going to Korea, but no such guarantee is in the cards for Karen or Ashley.

[Maleeva]

Chuckie how did Polina look in person?

[chuckiem]

Polina looked fabulous. Really!

[Jonas]

Ashley's score was fair, but I also think Mirai's technical score was quite high. Internationally, that 3Axel attempt would've received a carrot, no question.

The USFSA is definitely going to make Ashley earn this spot. She's only 3.54 points from Karen Chen, so it ain't over, but Ashley hasn't delivered a 135+ FS since Nationals '17, so it ain't looking good either. Also for kicks: Ashley was a mere 0.73 points from Mirai and 2.04 points from newbie Polina Edmunds four years ago, but she went on to tank her FS and couldn't nab that top 3 spot.

Conversely: Mirai was 8.62 points ahead of Mariah Bell at Nationals '17, but Mariah ended up beating Mirai for the bronze by 3.02 points. Mirai is ahead of both Ashley and Mariah by a similar margin this year.

Just passing the time before Fri. night by speculating!!

Your thoughts...

[Jonas]

PAIRS:
Honestly, I found the whole event anticlimactic. The highly favored Knierims are in 1st. Cain & Leduc, who I expected to challenge for the title tanked to 8th place. Every pair except the ones coached by Jim Peterson and Amanda Evora (all the SW FL teams nailed theirs) struggled w/their sbs triples -- which is totally expected as well sadly. I don't expect any kind of shockers in the FS, though it should be noted that Jim Peterson's teams have tendencies of crashing Olympic parties!

MEN:
Heartbroken for Max Aaron. Another case of wanting it too badly gone amuck

Grant Hochstein banged out a blinder outta left field!! Easily and undeniably his career best SP!! EVERYTHING!! Great 4toe-3toe, expression, performance, and complete audience connection.

Vincent Zhou reeled off an awesome 4Lutz-Rippon 3toe, but underrotated 4flip and fall on 3Axel had him behind Hochstein. Internationally, this woudn't be the case, but I'm totally ok w/it here. I gotta say that Zhou's quads are tidier than Nathan Chen's, but the rest of Zhou's skating just comes across smaller, so I don't find it as impactful as Chen's. With Max Aaron down and out, I do expect Zhou to quad his way to Pyeongchang.

Adam was oozing confidence in his performance, but I think it's worthing pointing out that there leaves a lot to be desired w/his stroking. I don't know how to explain it, but Adam pumps his back when he strokes. H'e's always had this issue, but I've found it a lot more noticeable this season and last. I also notice that Adam's strokes are shorter and choppier than a lot of the top men in the World and even Max Aaron. Tara and Johnny actually pointed out that Max is a great skater in the sense that, not only is he fast, but he's also an effortless stroker and covers more ice in a lot fewer strokes than Adam does. Nonetheless, Adam is headed for his first Olympics!

Jason Brown got gifted here. His 3Axel was clearly two-footed and underrotated in real time and was clearly downgrade worthy upon slo-mo replay. Had that 3Axel been called correctly, Grant Hochstein would be in 3rd where he belonged tonight! Kudos to Johnny & Tara for putting that technical specialist on shout!!

Finally another honorable mention to Alex Johnson, who I find always seems to have the most thoughtful, tasteful, and original choreography. Just lovely to watch.

Your thoughts...

[chuckiem]

SENIOR PAIRS SHORT RESULTS

1 Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM 71.10
2 Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O'SHEA 68.93
3 Deanna STELLATO-DUDEK / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY 67.84
4 Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER 63.63
5 Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON 62.35
6 Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN 60.75
7 Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN 60.52
8 Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC 60.03
9 Nica DIGERNESS / Danny NEUDECKER 53.78
10 Winter DEARDORFF / Max SETTLAGE 51.15
11 Erika SMITH / AJ REISS 50.95
12 Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU 50.43
13 Caitlin FIELDS / Ernie Utah STEVENS 45.49
14 Alison TIMLEN / Justin HIGHGATE-BRUTMAN 41.70
15 Alexandria YAO / Jacob SIMON 40.97


SENIOR MEN SHORT RESULTS

1 Nathan CHEN 104.45
2 Adam RIPPON 96.52
3 Jason BROWN 93.23
4 Grant HOCHSTEIN 92.18
5 Vincent ZHOU 89.02
6 Ross MINER 88.91
7 Timothy DOLENSKY 85.06
8 Aleksei KRASNOZHON 82.58
9 Andrew TORGASHEV 81.32
10 Alexander JOHNSON 79.60
11 Jimmy MA 75.28
12 Max AARON 74.95
13 Sean RABBITT 73.22
14 Emmanuel SAVARY 64.65
15 Tomoki HIWATASHI 63.48
16 Sebastian PAYANNET 61.29
17 Scott DYER 60.17
19 Daniel KULENKAMP 60.15
19 Ben JALOVICK 56.12
20 Jordan MOELLER 55.35
21 Kevin SHUM 52.04

[bumphystars]

PAIRS:


Adam was oozing confidence in his performance, but I think it's worthing pointing out that there leaves a lot to be desired w/his stroking. I don't know how to explain it, but Adam pumps his back when he strokes. H'e's always had this issue, but I've found it a lot more noticeable this season and last. I also notice that Adam's strokes are shorter and choppier than a lot of the top men in the World and even Max Aaron. Tara and Johnny actually pointed out that Max is a great skater in the sense that, not only is he fast, but he's also an effortless stroker and covers more ice in a lot fewer strokes than Adam does. Nonetheless, Adam is headed for his first Olympics!


Your thoughts...

I love Adam—he skates like he owns the place and is so unabashedly authentic. Which is so refreshing! But I agree with these comments. Mostly, I find that he is really slow. But, regardless, he is definitely deserving of a spot on the Olympic team, regardless of what happens here in the free. He has had a great season and consistently lays it down. Which is not a bad strategy in the days of high-risk programs.

[Virginia]

Polina Edmonds has withdrawn. No reason given. She was sitting in 7th place after the short.

A skater named Alyssa Lin (21st) has also withdrawn.

[Maleeva]

Adam is not the best stroker in the world and his is no the speediest skater in the world, but nothing about his back posture has ever bothered me. And i am quite sensitive to skaters with poor posture and back pumping!

[Maleeva]

I really would love to know how this expert tech panel did not at least give an under rotation to jason’s Triple axel. Just amazing. It is quite clear the current top three is who the USFSA wants in Pyeongchang.

I loved nathan’s Footwork sequence last night!

[Maleeva]

Just watched the short dance. The Shibs were so on and were just foot perfect. How they time the first set of twizzles to the singer counting off each twizzle, really is mind blowing. They do like 6 extra twizzles in total than what level 4 requires. Hub/Don looked in shock when the Shib’s score came up and they knew they were 3 points behind the dynamic siblings. It really is a joy to watch the three top teams here-US is so lucky to have all three-an embarrassment of riches. And I really can’t see any of them not sticking around for the next Olympic cycle.

Amazingly, all three teams scored + 2 or +3 GOE on every single element. Stupendous!

Interesting to note that both Hawayek/baker and the Parsons had higher levels/base value than chock/bates and Hub/Don.