International Skating Union

She said this about Ashley being the favourite over Kaetlyn on last week's Ice Talk podcast as well, I nearly spilled my coffee all over my car when I heard it!

Wow! I cannot! Was Tara Lipinski being for real?!?! Perhaps this is another example of cheesing up the obviously tape delayed broadcast to the casual viewer?!?! I'm lucky enough to get the Olympic Channel on my cable package, so I was able to watch this LIVE. No time did I remember ever hearing Ryan Bradley indicate or even attempt to hint that Ashley was the favorite here. In fact, without Ryan ever explicitly stating such, his commentary rightfully suggested that Kaetlyn Osmond was the class of this field, I.e., how Kaetlyn scores so well even when she makes mistakes, etc.

Your thoughts...

she was definitely for real. That podcast is great, but since it is out of the US there is usually an emphasis on American skaters, and occasionally an overzealousness about their chances...which I get. They know their market.

(By the by, other than that it's a good podcast and I recommend it.)

Actually I can see where Tara was coming from with her prediction about Ashley favored to win Skate Canada. She was basing it on their respective track records.

Ashley tends to come on strong in her early season competitions, especially the GP. She's fresh, rested and raring to go. Look at her GP record: in the past eight seasons, she's competed in 16 Grand Prix events (not counting the final). Out of 16 she's won five golds, three silvers and four bronzes -- 12 medals in 16 competitions. In other words, she's got a really good track record in the fall. It's later in the season that her skating has suffered.

Kaetlyn, by comparison had competed in only 8 GP events through her senior career (before the current season), and medaled in only three of those, a less striking percentage.

Then there's Worlds: Ashley has gone for the last six years straight, and has placed in the top five four of those six times (with that one glorious silver medal). Kaetlyn has only been three times, finishing 8th, 11th and 2nd. And inconsistency has been a hallmark of Kaetlyn's career, especially in the free program (not that Ashley hasn't struggled with it at times, too).

But of course, using only track records ignores the current realities: Ashley is 26 and clearly in the twilight of her career, barely managing to keep up with the youngsters. Her jumping prowess has never been her strong suit, something she readily admits; her forte is her artistry. Kaetlyn is a vibrant 21, clearly at the height of her athletic powers, and a formidable jumper. And this sport is rewarding superior jumping technique over artistry like never before. And her own World silver medal in Helsinki has been a terrific boost for her confidence.

I think Tara regarded Kaetlyn's performance in Helsinki as a fluke, but her skates in Regina proved that assumption wrong. I think Osmond has a real shot at a medal in Korea.

Ashley's decision to revert to her 2016 programs is very telling: she says she wants to feel like the athlete she was two years ago, when she had her achieved her only World Championship podium. But it's clear to anybody watching her that she isn't the athlete she was in Boston. This may be a consequence of aging, or fatigue, or something else. Who knows?

I'm confident that the USFSA will send her to Pyeongchang, simply because with Gracie Gold gone there's no other US lady who can approach her level of experience and who has garnered as much respect with the international judges. But I don't think even two perfect programs can get her near an Olympic podium -- there are just too many talented girls out there, Kaetlyn Osmond among them.

Thanks for this thoughtful reply, Virginia.

I think the difference is that Kaetlyn is on the ascension, as you point out, not on the decline.

And Tara didn't point out that Ashley is using her MR program for the third time, which indicates something...perhaps it's just comfort, or perhaps lack of effort. But it's something.

Where I totally agree with you is that Ashley will be on the Olympic team. And she should be. For one, there aren't that many other options, and also because the experience she brings will help the entire US skating team, something that is really important in the Olympic pressure cooker. She can help the other athletes to know what to expect, etc.

I've always had a special place in my heart for Wagner, I'll admit. She spent some of her early years in Alexandria, Virginia, near where I live, and I have two personal connections to her (though I've never met her).

First, the college roommate of my elder daughter skated with her at the Mount Vernon ice rink when they were teens, and they still maintain a casual facebook friendship. (I love it when Liz comes to visit because she's one of the few people who I can talk skating with -- like we do hereabouts. Not many people in my Real Life know the difference between a triple flip and a triple lutz, and even fewer care.)

Second, my principal (I'm a high-school librarian) taught Ashley in World History back in the 9th grade at West Potomac High School, circa 2006 or so. I keep him up with her progress. I sent him a link to her wonderful short program in Boston (the one where she ended the program sitting on the ice laughing with joy), and he replied, "OMG! Ashley's short program was so exciting, and I felt like I saw a little of the 14-year-old Ashley I knew at the end of the program when she fell onto the ice".

But I can't deny that Kaetlyn is, as you say, on the ascent. She really wowed me at Skate Canada. I don't think it's realistic to hope that Ashley or any other American lady will medal at the Olympics (except in the team event). But I would LOVE to see Kaetlyn beat Medvedeva and take the gold, the first time ever for a Canadian lady!

I totally hear you about not having any of your frequent friends understand the diff between a flip and a lutz, or care about skating at all. Don't they understand that being a skating fan is an affliction??!?! Haha, I guess that's why we have each other.

I love Ashley, she has so much spark and personality and is doing it all on her own terms. She is a fantastic role model and, at the end of the day, that's just as important as winning medals. I'm rooting for her, but, like you, I'm not entirely optimistic about her chances at a Olympic medal.