by Virginia » Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:00 am
Actually I can see where Tara was coming from with her prediction about Ashley favored to win Skate Canada. She was basing it on their respective track records.
Ashley tends to come on strong in her early season competitions, especially the GP. She's fresh, rested and raring to go. Look at her GP record: in the past eight seasons, she's competed in 16 Grand Prix events (not counting the final). Out of 16 she's won five golds, three silvers and four bronzes -- 12 medals in 16 competitions. In other words, she's got a really good track record in the fall. It's later in the season that her skating has suffered.
Kaetlyn, by comparison had competed in only 8 GP events through her senior career (before the current season), and medaled in only three of those, a less striking percentage.
Then there's Worlds: Ashley has gone for the last six years straight, and has placed in the top five four of those six times (with that one glorious silver medal). Kaetlyn has only been three times, finishing 8th, 11th and 2nd. And inconsistency has been a hallmark of Kaetlyn's career, especially in the free program (not that Ashley hasn't struggled with it at times, too).
But of course, using only track records ignores the current realities: Ashley is 26 and clearly in the twilight of her career, barely managing to keep up with the youngsters. Her jumping prowess has never been her strong suit, something she readily admits; her forte is her artistry. Kaetlyn is a vibrant 21, clearly at the height of her athletic powers, and a formidable jumper. And this sport is rewarding superior jumping technique over artistry like never before. And her own World silver medal in Helsinki has been a terrific boost for her confidence.
I think Tara regarded Kaetlyn's performance in Helsinki as a fluke, but her skates in Regina proved that assumption wrong. I think Osmond has a real shot at a medal in Korea.
Ashley's decision to revert to her 2016 programs is very telling: she says she wants to feel like the athlete she was two years ago, when she had her achieved her only World Championship podium. But it's clear to anybody watching her that she isn't the athlete she was in Boston. This may be a consequence of aging, or fatigue, or something else. Who knows?
I'm confident that the USFSA will send her to Pyeongchang, simply because with Gracie Gold gone there's no other US lady who can approach her level of experience and who has garnered as much respect with the international judges. But I don't think even two perfect programs can get her near an Olympic podium -- there are just too many talented girls out there, Kaetlyn Osmond among them.